Product Name: Lays By Data – Get paid when the favourite loses. Turn £50 into £5,000.
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Lays By Data – Get paid when the favourite loses. Turn £50 into £5,000. is backed with a 60 Day No Questions Asked Money Back Guarantee. If within the first 60 days of receipt you are not satisfied with Wake Up Lean™, you can request a refund by sending an email to the address given inside the product and we will immediately refund your entire purchase price, with no questions asked.
Description:
The pink side of the exchange
Roughly two in every three favourites get turned over, and every time one does, the backers’ money goes to whoever laid it. John built the machine that finds the favourites that shouldn’t be favourites – one or two lays a morning, £2 a go to start, with the working shown under each so you learn to spot them yourself. Two minutes to put on. Tax-free profit, seconds after the line, and the stakes grow as the bank does.
Start with £100 and £4 lays instead, and the same year is aiming at £10,000. Nothing ever laid above 3.10, so the worst a single lay can cost you is a few quid.
Starts Saturday 3rd October – lays by 11am – £39 for the year
One payment, nothing monthly. 30-day no-quibble money-back guarantee – follow the lays for a few weeks, then decide.
I’m John. First name only, and no photo – I’m a private sort and I’d like to keep it that way – but everything else you’re about to read is the truth: how I ended up on the pink side of the exchange, why I’ve spent more on AI this year than most people spend on their car, and why I’m finally letting other punters in on it.
I’ve been laying favourites for years. It started with a stat I couldn’t get out of my head: the favourite gets beaten in roughly two out of every three races. Not the outsiders. The jolly. The horse the whole market has decided is the most likely winner still gets turned over far more often than it wins. And every time it does, somebody on the exchange collects the backers’ money without ever having had to pick a winner.
I wanted to be that somebody. And then Covid happened, and for the first time in my adult life I had the one thing a punter never has: hours. Racing came back behind closed doors, I was at the kitchen table with nowhere to be, and I started doing something I’d never had time for – going through a race properly. Not glancing at the form. Sitting with it. Every runner, every previous run, the ground it won on, the trip it didn’t, the draw, the pace, the trainer’s record at the track, what the market had done since the morning.
Here’s what I noticed, and it changed everything. The deeper I went, the more accurate I got. Not a bit more – a lot more. The stuff that had been sitting in my head for years as instinct, the things I “just knew” about a horse, turned out to be rules. When I wrote them down and applied them properly, every time, to every runner, the false favourites stopped being a hunch and started being a list. So I did what any punter with too much time and a spreadsheet does: I turned it into a rulebook.
People talk about an edge like it’s something you find. It isn’t. It’s something you put the hours into. Anyone who’s properly good at anything – a golfer, a mechanic, a chef – got there by giving a stupid number of hours to it, and betting is no different. I’ve given those hours to laying horses – years of evenings and weekends before Covid, then a stretch where I could give it whole days. The rulebook is what all that time turned into, and it’s the thing I’m now handing you a piece of every morning.
Not a hunch. A proper system. A fixed set of key data points for every runner, measured against that horse’s entire racing history. Changes in the race conditions – the ground turning, a step up or down in trip, a bad draw, a jockey switch, a field that’s suddenly full of front-runners – checked against how that horse has coped with the same thing before. And one test above all the others: the price the market’s offering against the real chance of that horse not winning this race, against these rivals. Get that right and you’re not guessing which horse wins. You’re just spotting the favourite that’s shorter than it should be, and laying it.
It worked. That was the problem.
Because the thing that made it work – the depth – was the thing I couldn’t keep up once the world reopened. Doing it properly meant going through every runner in every race I fancied, by hand, every morning. Race cards. Exchange odds. Form lines. Going reports. Four hours on a good day, and by the time I’d finished the first race was off and the price I wanted had gone. The lockdown hours went back to being work hours. I found myself skipping days, then skipping the checks, then laying on gut feel because I hadn’t had time to do the sums – and I knew from the Covid months exactly how much accuracy I was throwing away every time I cut a corner. Gut feel is how punters go skint.
The system was good. I was the weak link.
Then AI got good enough to be the strong one. Properly good – the sort of model you pay a hefty monthly subscription for, not the free thing that writes birthday poems. And the first time I sat down with it I realised what I’d been missing for years: a version of me that never gets tired, never gets lazy, and never falls for a horse because it likes the name. I trained it on my rulebook. Every rule, every data point, every “if the ground goes soft and it’s never won on soft, that’s a strike against it”. And every morning on race day I feed it the day’s race cards and the live exchange odds for the races I pick out. Not every race – running a model like this on a full card costs a fortune, and most races don’t have a false favourite in them anyway. Just the ones worth looking at.
It does in a few minutes what took me four hours – and it does it at the depth I could only manage when the whole country was locked indoors. Every horse’s history, every changed condition, every price against every chance – the lot, before I’ve finished my first coffee – and then it hands me one or two lays. I get the lockdown-level analysis every single morning, and I get my hours back. Every single day. Some days none. I go through what it gives me, the way I always did, and what survives goes out to you by 11am at the latest.
Ten years of laying favourites by hand, and I’ve never had an edge like this.
That’s not me getting carried away. That’s what it feels like when the thing that always stopped your system working – you, running out of hours – is suddenly out of the picture. The rulebook I’d have trusted with my life is finally being run the way it was meant to be run: every race I point it at, every single morning, with nothing skipped.
I didn’t launch it the day it was built. I ran it on my own money first, for a good stretch, and treated it the way you’d treat a horse you were bringing back from a layoff: watch, adjust, watch again. The first version was too keen – it flagged favourites I’d never have laid by hand, so I tightened the rules on trip and ground. Then it was too cautious on the big Saturday cards, so I loosened the value test. Every week I went back over what it had picked, what it had missed, and what I’d have done at the kitchen table, and moved the rulebook until the two agreed. What I’m sending you from Saturday isn’t the first version. It’s the one that survived the testing. The screenshots further down are from my own exchange account, the week before this page went live. Now I want a small group of punters laying alongside me from a clean £50 bank, every result in a public ledger, from the very first morning. Not because I need the company – because a year from now I want a ledger that starts on Saturday 3rd October with fifty quid at the top, and I want you to be able to say you were on it from bet one.
Which brings me to the bit I’m most pleased about, and the real reason I’m opening this up. Every morning’s email doesn’t just give you the lay. It shows you the working. Why that horse, why that price, which of the data points flagged it and which conditions have changed since it last ran. Not a lecture – two or three lines under each lay, in plain English, the same way I’d explain it to a mate at the rail. Do that every morning for a few months and something happens: you start seeing the false favourites before the email lands. You’re not just getting my lays. You’re learning to find them yourself. By the end of the year you’ll have a rulebook in your head that took me years to build, and nobody can take that off you.
One more thing, since I’m keeping a low profile out here. Inside, it’s different. Members get me every morning in the email, in my own words – why I’ve picked what I’ve picked, what I’m nervous about, what I got wrong yesterday – and when you reply, it’s me that answers. The public gets a first name and a ledger. Members get to know me properly. That’s the way round I want it.
It’s not glamorous. Laying a 2.5 shot that gets done by a neck at Wolverhampton on a Monday is a boring, repetitive way to make money. Boring and repetitive is the point. But do it every morning for a year, with the stakes growing as the bank grows, and boring and repetitive is how a £50 bank turns into something you’d actually notice in your account. I’ve spent years waiting for the tools to catch up with the idea. They have. This is the year I find out how far it goes, and you’re invited.
The challenge starts Saturday 3rd October. Everyone who’s in by Friday night gets the first lays that morning and starts the £50 bank level with mine on day one. Join later and you’ll still get that day’s lays as normal – you’ll just be starting a bank that’s already moving.
Join The Challenge – £39 For The Year
Lay betting, properly explained
If you’ve only ever bet with a bookie, here’s the whole thing in a minute.
When you back a horse, you’re the punter. You hand over your stake, and if the horse wins you get paid at the odds. If it loses, the bookie keeps your money.
When you lay a horse, you’re the bookie. Someone else hands over their stake, and you’re the one paying out if the horse wins. If it loses – if anything else in the race wins – you keep their money.
You can’t do that at Bet365 or Paddy Power. They’re not letting you behind the counter. You do it on a betting exchange – Betfair is the biggest – where punters bet against each other and the exchange takes a small commission out of whoever wins.
On the exchange every horse has two prices. Blue is the price you can back it at. Pink is the price you can lay it at. Click the pink one and the bet slip asks you for one number: the backer’s stake, meaning how much of the other punter’s money you’re willing to take on. It then tells you your liability, which is what you’d pay out if the horse wins. Two boxes, one click, done. Here’s one of mine from the Friday before this page went up:
Once the race is run, one of three things happens, and only one of them costs you money:
You win the backer’s stake, less commission. It’s in your balance before the jockeys have weighed in.
You pay the liability. The number you saw on the slip before you clicked. Never a penny more.
Withdrawn, or the race is abandoned: the bet is void and the money goes back where it came from.
The sum behind the liability box is the only maths you’ll ever need. Liability = stake × (price – 1). Here it is at the kind of prices we lay, on the £2 stakes the challenge starts with:
Winnings shown before exchange commission. The ledger takes commission off for you.
That’s why I never lay above 3.10. On the £50 challenge bank with £2 lays, the very worst a single lay can do is cost you £4.20. Lay a 20/1 shot instead and the same £2 has £40 riding on it. Short prices keep the liability small, and short prices are exactly where the false favourites live. Even 3.10 is pushing it, and most of what the model finds sits well under it.
Notice the other thing the price is doing. Lay at 2.0 and you’re risking two quid to win two quid on a horse that, even by the market’s own maths, loses half the time. Lay at 3.0 and you’re risking four to win two on a horse that loses two times in three. You’re not being asked to find a winner. You’re being asked to stand on the side of the counter that gets paid most of the time.
A horse doesn’t go off favourite because it’s the most likely winner. It goes off favourite because the most money landed on it – and plenty of that money is a famous yard, a big-name jockey booking, a two-year-old that won a maiden by six, or a horse half the pub has heard of. None of that runs today’s race.
The data does. Every runner leaves a trail of numbers behind it, and the numbers don’t care whose colours it’s wearing. They tell you whether it’s ever won at today’s trip, on today’s ground, from today’s draw, off today’s mark, against today’s pace. When the market says “most likely winner” and the numbers say “not at this price”, that’s a lay.
Six career wins, all at six furlongs. Sent off favourite over a mile.
Never placed on anything softer than good. It rained all night.
Drawn 14 of 14 on a track where a high draw hasn’t won at the trip all season.
A front-runner in a race with three other front-runners.
Trainer two winners from forty-one runners at the course this year.
Backed from 5.0 to 3.0 on a jockey booking, not on a line of form.
One of those and the jolly can still win. Stack three or four of them at a skinny price and you’ve got a false favourite – a horse being backed for its name, not for what it can do at half past two this afternoon. Finding them by hand across a full card is a morning’s work. Here’s how it happens now.
Not every race. Running a model like this across a whole day’s racing costs a fortune, and most races don’t have a false favourite in them anyway. Each morning I pick out the races where the market looks most likely to have got it wrong.
The race cards and the live exchange odds for those races, uploaded on the morning of racing – not the night before. Overnight rain, a non-runner, a jockey switch, a market move: it all goes in.
The model has been trained on my system: the key data points, the changes in race conditions that matter, all measured against each horse’s full racing history. The checks I used to do by hand, done for every runner in seconds.
The one that decides it. The price the market’s offering against the real chance of that horse not winning, against these rivals, today. Where the gap is big enough, that’s a lay. It hands me one or two. Some mornings none.
Then I do the part I always did: go through what it’s given me, line by line, before anything goes near your inbox. The machine does the four hours. I do the last five minutes. You get the email by 11am – with the reasoning under every lay, so over time you learn to spot them the way the model does.
The model doesn’t have a favourite jockey, doesn’t get bored on a wet Tuesday, and doesn’t skip the checks because it’s running late. That’s the whole edge.
I’m a punter, not a personality, and I like my privacy – so you get my first name, my ledger and my exchange account, and not much else. I’ve been laying favourites on the exchange for years, I built the rulebook the model runs on, and I lay every selection with my own money before it goes out. The type who reads the going report twice and bins a lay he likes because the draw’s wrong.
Judge the numbers. The slip below is mine from the Friday before this page went up, the balance is my exchange account that week – my name’s on it – and from Saturday 3rd October every lay I send is in a public ledger, losers included.
And once you’re in, you’ll get to know me a lot better than this page lets on. Every morning’s email is written by me, not a template. When you reply, I’m the one who writes back. By Christmas you’ll know how I think about a race, which is worth more than knowing what I look like.
The exchange puts the two side by side on every race, every day, in blue and pink. Most punters spend their whole betting lives on the blue side and never once look across.
Sold already? Skip to the order box – £39 for the year
Morning. Two lays today, both short, both inside the rulebook.
Ledger updated tonight. Reply if anything’s unclear.
This isn’t a service you drift into halfway through. On Saturday 3rd October I start a £50 bank in public – £2 lays, the exact selections you get, every result in the ledger – and everyone who’s in gets the same first lays that morning. Same bank, same stakes, same day. Level footing, and a bank you can hold up against mine, week by week, to the penny.
£50 is the starting point, not the limit. Start with more and you simply lay more – the same horses at the same prices. The stake in every email is given for the £50 bank, so scale it to yours:
Stakes are the same fraction of the bank at every size. As the bank grows, the stakes grow with it, and the new stake is in the email.
Which is where the plot twist comes in. Start with £50 and £2 lays, and the aim is £5,000 by this time next year. Start with £100 and £4 lays – the same horses, the same prices, the stake simply doubled – and the same year is aiming at £10,000. Nothing else changes: same emails, same ledger, same 3.10 ceiling. You just decide on day one which of the two races you’re running.
Both are targets I’m laying to, not promises – the ledger will show exactly how close it gets, week by week, losers included. The only thing I can guarantee is that you’ll see every number.
Tipsters love to tell you about the winners. Laying services love to tell you about the jollies that got turned over. I’ll tell you about both – and about the ones that went wrong – in the same table, the same evening. Beaten favourites in green. Favourites that won in red. The bank at the bottom, moving whichever way it moved.
One more thing, because it matters more in laying than anywhere else. Every winning lay in the ledger has Betfair’s commission taken off before it’s counted. Plenty of tipsters quote their results gross, and on a laying record that flatters the numbers by a lot. Mine are shown net at Betfair’s standard 5%, so the bank you see is the bank you’d actually have on Betfair – and if you’re on one of the exchanges that charges 2%, you’ll do a shade better than the ledger says.
How the ledger will look from the first day of the challenge. P&L shown net of 5% commission.
Get On The Ledger From Bet One
You need one exchange account. Just one. My prices are quoted from Betfair because it’s the deepest pool of money in racing, but the lays work anywhere the horse can be laid, and the other three charge less commission. Pick one, open it (about ten minutes, a debit card and a photo of your driving licence), and you’re set. Here’s the honest rundown:
The original and by a distance the biggest. More money matched on UK and Irish racing than the other three put together, every race at every meeting, and it’s where my prices come from.
Watch: the dearest commission of the four at a standard 5%, though some accounts pay less. The ledger is calculated at Betfair’s 5%, so on any of the others you’ll come out slightly ahead of it.
One of the oldest exchanges and a proper racing exchange – UK and Irish racing is where its money sits. Regularly runs 0% commission for the first few months on a new account, which is worth having.
Watch: less money in some races than Betfair. At challenge stakes that’s no problem at all; as your bank grows, glance at what’s available before you lay big.
The cleanest, simplest platform of the four and the easiest place to learn – if you’ve never laid a horse, the layout makes it obvious. Also runs 0% commission welcome periods.
Watch: built more around football and politics than racing, so the racing markets are thinner. Fine for £2 and £5 lays on favourites, less so once you’re laying in tens of pounds.
Low commission and decent racing coverage, with reasonable money in the win markets on the main meetings. Has run long 0% commission windows for new accounts, and promotional rates below 2% at times.
Watch: quiet outside the main markets and the main meetings. Good as a second account; check the money available if it’s your only one.
Two things make this easy whichever you pick. First, we only ever lay the favourite, which is the horse with the most money on it in every race, so getting your £2 matched at the advised price is rarely a problem on any of the four. Second, exchanges don’t do what the bookies do: a bookie will restrict a winning account to pennies within weeks, while an exchange earns its commission from your winners, so it’s quite happy for you to keep having them.
Newer exchanges pop up now and then. The racing money on them is thin, so stick to the four above for now.
A lay that loses costs you the liability, and the liability is bigger than the stake. That’s the price of standing on the side of the counter that gets paid two times in three. Anyone who tells you laying can’t lose has never laid a jolly that hacked up by six lengths. I have. It goes in the ledger like everything else.
One or two a morning. Some days none, because the model flags nothing worth opposing and I’d rather send you an empty email than a bad lay. Laying a favourite because it’s Tuesday is how laying services go skint.
You can’t lay anything at a bookie. That’s their side of the counter and they’re not sharing it. You need an exchange account – Betfair, Betdaq, Smarkets or Matchbook – and if you haven’t got one, it takes about ten minutes. There’s a step-by-step on the members page.
It’s a £50 bank, £2 lays, a fixed rulebook, and a year of letting the sums do the work. A £2 lay that lands wins you £2, less a bit of commission. Nobody’s retiring on that, and in the first few weeks it’ll feel like nothing is happening.
Here’s what is happening. The stakes are a fixed slice of the bank, so every time the bank grows, the next lay is a little bigger. £2 becomes £2.50, then £3, then £5 – the same favourites, the same short prices, just a bigger stake on each one because the bank behind it is bigger. The profit from last month’s lays is what’s staking this month’s, and it never comes out of your pocket. That’s compounding, and it’s why a bank that looks like it’s crawling in October can be running by spring. Two quid a lay is where it starts. It isn’t where it stays.
Dull on a wet Wednesday at Southwell. A lot less dull in twelve months.
Most laying services talk in stakes, because stakes sound small. A £10 lay at 6.0 is a £50 liability, and if nobody writes that down you find out the hard way. So every lay I send has the liability written next to it, and every lay sits under a hard price ceiling of 3.10. That one rule does more for your bank than anything else on this page: on £2 lays, no single result can ever cost you more than £4.20.
The stakes don’t stay at £2. As the bank grows, I move the challenge stake up with it and tell you the new figure in the email – the same fraction of a bigger bank, so the lays grow while the worst case stays a small slice of what you’ve got. That’s the whole engine. There’s no clever bit, and that’s why it keeps working.
Test it without risking a penny
Here’s the honest way to try a tipping service, and it’s the way I’d suggest you try this one.
So the only thing you’re really deciding today is whether you want the first lays on the 3rd with everyone else, or a few weeks later with the bank already moving. Either way the worst case is a refund and a few mornings spent watching a ledger fill up.
Membership is £39 for the year. One payment, nothing monthly, nothing on top, and nothing to cancel later.
Twelve months of lays, from the first morning
Once. For the full twelve months. No monthly, no rebill, no hidden extras.
Less than a tenner a quarter – or one bad Saturday – for a year of lays.
Secure checkout through ClickBank. One payment – nothing rebills. 30-day no-quibble money-back guarantee.
Every email you send comes to a phone, not a ticket queue. Write to support@laysbydata.com or reply to any email and it reaches two people: me, and Stephen, who runs the site. A question about a price, a liability, a line in the ledger or why I laid what I laid – that’s mine, and I answer the same day, usually inside the hour during racing. Anything technical – the email didn’t arrive, the confirmation link, a receipt, getting into the members page – Stephen picks up, so you’re never waiting on me to finish a race meeting to get a login sorted.
P.S. The favourite will get beaten in about two of the next three races run in Britain today, whether anyone’s laying it or not. The only thing that changes when you join is whose account the backers’ money lands in.
P.P.S. The challenge starts Saturday 3rd October and the first lays go out that morning. Join by Friday night and your £50 bank starts on the same day as mine. Join later and you’re chasing a bank that’s already moving – and the day-one lays are the only ones you can never get back.
Results published on this site are recorded at advised prices and shown net of exchange commission. Past results do not guarantee future results. The £5,000 and £10,000 figures are targets, not promises. Laying carries a liability greater than the stake, and a lay that loses costs the full liability. Never lay with money you cannot afford to lose. Lays By Data is an information service and is not a bookmaker or a betting exchange. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org
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All orders are protected by SSL encryption – the highest industry standard for online security from trusted vendors.
Lays By Data – Get paid when the favourite loses. Turn £50 into £5,000. is backed with a 60 Day No Questions Asked Money Back Guarantee. If within the first 60 days of receipt you are not satisfied with Wake Up Lean™, you can request a refund by sending an email to the address given inside the product and we will immediately refund your entire purchase price, with no questions asked.
